NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:2024 Kentucky Derby: Power ranking every horse in the field based on odds

Churchill Downs is NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Centerprepped and ready to go as we are just a few days away from witnessing the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby. The fastest two minutes in sports could not come faster, but for those of us looking to understand the race and the competitors a little bit more before throwing a little money on the event, there is still plenty of time to educate yourself and make an informed decision on which horse you'd like to back.

The early favorite heading into this weekend's race is none other than Fierceness. The three-year-old colt has posted the highest Speed Score (110) of any horse in the field, and has done so twice. However, experts are not entirely sure if Fierceness can bring that same speed to Churchill Downs due to a lack of both maturity and consistency. Other horses like Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, Just a Touch, and Forever Young are often picked to finish ahead of Fierceness.

2024 Kentucky Derby:Odds, Date, time, how to watch and more to know about 150th race

Still, Fierceness' speed is hard to overlook. There's a reason he entered the week as the odds-on favorite. Here's where every horse ranks based on their odds of victory in Saturday's race. All odds via CBS Sports.

Looking to bet:Wager on the Kentucky Derby with FanDuel

2024 Kentucky Derby Power Rankings:

The favorites:

1) Fierceness: 5-2

2) Sierra Leone: 3-1

3) Catching Freedom: 8-1

T-4) Forever Young: 10-1

T-4) Just a Touch: 10-1

Among the favorites, Sierra Leone seems to be a consensus top-three finish due to the horse's consistency and top-tier speed. Although Sierra Leone does not have the highest Equibase Speed Score, Sierra Leone's average speed (98.3) is the second-highest in the field, and the horse has consistently won races or placed top-three in them at the very least. If you're looking to play it safe, Sierra Leone to place in the top-three might be the safest bet of the weekend.

The Contenders:

T-6) Dornoch: 20-1

T-6) Mystik Dan: 20-1

T-6) Just Steel: 20-1

T-6) Honor Marie: 20-1

T-6) Track Phantom: 20-1

T-6) Stronghold: 20-1

T-6) Resilience: 20-1

Of these horses, Resilience might be the best bet because of how well Resilience has done in its most recent races. Two wins in its last three races is no easy task, but Resilience has continued to show improvement leading up to the Run for the Roses. Furthermore, Resilience's trainer William Mott is a Kentucky Derby champion, having won the event as recently as 2019 (Country House).

The Dark Horses (no pun intended):

T-13) Catalytic: 30-1

T-13) T O Password: 30-1

T-13) Endlessly: 30-1

T-13) Domestic Product: 30-1

T-13) Epic Ride: 30-1 *fill-in for scratch Encino

Betting on Epic Ride is arguably the best move of this tier. Not only is betting on a horse that wasn't even supposed to participate a phenomenal story to follow as a casual fan, but Epic Ride's sire, Blame, was also a phenomenal racer at Churchill Downs, winning four of five career races on that track. Furthermore, Epic Ride has finished top-three in every race of its career, including a third-place finish at the Blue Grass Stakes less than a month ago behind other top-tier Derby contenders Sierra Leone (1st) and Just a Touch (2nd).

The Longshots:

T-18) West Saratoga: 50-1

T-18) Grand Mo the First: 50-1

T-18) Society Man: 50-1

Among these horses, none are a great bet to win the Derby. Let's be honest. However, Society Man may have the best shot of finishing top-ten. Not only has Society Man improved its speed score in each of its last three races (from 73 to 95), but Society Man has also finished top-two in each of its last two races.

Although the horse has failed to win against other Derby competitors, Society Man has shown steady improvement and has remained in contention in races even when paired against other Derby participants. On April 6, Society Man finished second at the Wood Memorial behind Resilience, which is a horse that many experts predict to outperform its odds. Society Man may be a longshot to win, but you won't find a better option at these odds.

Kentucky Derby 2024: TV, streaming and where to watch

• When: Saturday, May 4
• Coverage starts: 2:30 p.m. ET
• Post time: 6:57 p.m. ET
• Where: Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky
• TV: NBC
• Stream: Peacock; YouTube TV; fuboTV

HOW TO WATCH:See the 2024 Kentucky Derby with a subscription to Peacock

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